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LCM-Promo: An LLM-Based Uplift Model for Promotion Allocation

/ Paper arXiv 2610.37570

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1%LCM-Promo increased conversion by 1% and reduced promotion cost by 6% relative to the Segment-EMA production…
6%…increased conversion by 1% and reduced promotion cost by 6% relative to the Segment-EMA production baseline.

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We present LCM-Promo, an LLM-based uplift model for promotion allocation. LCM-Promo is a task-specific Large Commerce Model (LCM): a finetuned LLM trained on transactional commerce data to predict user intent and promotion response. It learns monotonic promotion-response curves from production logs by interpreting single-token outputs as conversion-threshold probabilities, while conditioning on session context such as day and delivery shift. In a production A/B test on churn reactivation, LCM-Promo increased conversion by 1% and reduced promotion cost by 6% relative to the Segment-EMA production baseline.

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